Climate Change Bogeyman Is Not to Blame for LA Fires

Droughts and Santa Ana winds have been part of the ecosystem for centuries.

Surveying the literature on droughts, Santa Ana winds, and fires in Los Angeles County, I see that these have been a part of the local ecosystem for all of recorded history. During the period of LA’s explosive growth in the 20th century, the county experienced three major droughts. According to a document titled “California’s Most Significant Droughts,” published by the California Department of Water Resources:

During the 20th century, California experienced three significant historical statewide droughts: the six-year event of 1929–1934, the two-year event of 1976–1977, and the six-year event of 1987–1992. These droughts are exceptional in the observed record because of their duration or severe hydrology. The 1929–1934 event occurred within the climatic context of a decades-plus dry period in the 1920s–1930s. Hydrology during those years rivaled that of the most severe dry periods in more than a millennium of reconstructed Central Valley paleoclimate data. That drought’s impacts were small by present-day standards, however, because the state’s urban and agricultural development was far less than it is today. The 1976–1977 drought, though lasting only two years, was notable for the severity of its hydrology. The 1987–1992 drought was California’s first extended dry period since the 1920s–1930s, and provides the closest comparison for drought impacts under a present-day level of development.

Likewise, strong Santa Ana winds have been recorded throughout the region’s history. As noted in Wikipedia:

The Santa Ana winds and the accompanying raging wildfires have been a part of the ecosystem of the Los Angeles Basin for over 5,000 years, dating back to the earliest habitation of the region by the Tongva and Tataviam peoples.^[22] The Santa Ana winds have been recognized and reported in English-language records as a weather phenomenon in Southern California since at least the mid-nineteenth century.^[1] During the Mexican–American War, Commodore Robert Stockton reported that a "strange, dust-laden windstorm" arrived in the night while his troops were marching south through California in January 1847.^[5] Various episodes of hot, dry winds have been described over this history as dust storms, hurricane-force winds, and violent north-easters, damaging houses and destroying fruit orchards. Newspaper archives have many photographs of regional damage dating back to the beginnings of news reporting in Los Angeles. When the Los Angeles Basin was primarily an agricultural region, the winds were feared particularly by farmers for their potential to destroy crops.^[1]

The strongest Santa Ana winds yet recorded occurred in early December 2011. An atmospheric set-up occurred that allowed the towns of Pasadena and Altadena in the San Gabriel Valley to get whipped by sustained winds at 97 mph (156 km/h), and gusts up to 167 mph (269 km/h).^[23][24] Mammoth Mountain experienced a near-record wind gust of 175 mph (282 km/h), on December 1, 2011.

Because they are simultaneously "gusty" and "desiccating", the Santa Ana winds are highly associated with regional wildfire danger.^[25] The winds have been implicated in some of the area's (and even the state's) largest and deadliest wildfires.

Major Santa Ana-fueled fires prior to 2000 included the Santiago Canyon Fire (1889), Bel Air Fire (1969),^[6] Anaheim Fire (1982),^[6] Laguna Fire (1970), Laguna Fire (1993), and Kinneloa Fire (1993).

Major Santa Ana-fueled fires from 2000 to 2019 included Cedar Fire (2003), Old Fire (2003), Esperanza Fire (2006), Witch Creek Fire (2007), October 2007 California wildfires, Tea Fire (2008), Sayre Fire (2008), Freeway Complex Fire (2008), May 2014 San Diego County wildfires, December 2017 Southern California wildfires, and the Thomas Fire (2018).

The climate change bogeyman is useful for pushing so-called “green energy” industries and for public officials dodging responsibility for their total lack of fire risk management, but it isn’t the cause of the current wildfire in Los Angeles.