A Model for Ending the War in Ukraine

The 1955 Austrian State Treaty is an obvious model for Ukraine.

In the spring of 1945, Soviet Red Army forces entered Austria from the east and American Army forces entered Austria from the west, and both closed on the ancient capital city of Vienna. By then it was already evident that as soon as Nazi Germany was defeated, the wartime alliance of the United States and the Soviet Union would give way to a fierce rivalry over the fate of Europe. Austria lay in the middle of this conflict.

To prevent each other from gaining the upper hand in Austria, the American military (along with those of Britain and France) occupied parts of Austria while the Soviet military occupied others. By 1947, U.S. Department of Defense became convinced that withdrawing Western troops would leave the country open to complete Soviet occupation. For their part, the Soviets were far more interested in gaining an advantage in Germany, where the Cold War was intensifying.

Following the death of Stalin in 1953, Soviet Foreign Minister Molotov expressed his willingness to discuss Austrian independence, and he invited Austrian Chancellor Julius Raab to Moscow to discuss the matter.

Wikipedia offers a decent summary of what happened next:

Raab's visit to Moscow (12–15 April) was a breakthrough. Moscow agreed that Austria would be free no later than 31 December. Austrians agreed to pay for the "German assets" and oil fields left by the Soviets, mostly in kind; "the real prize was to be neutrality on the Swiss model." Molotov also promised the release and repatriation of Austrians imprisoned in the Soviet Union.

Western powers were stunned. British diplomat and signatory to the treaty, Geoffrey Wallinger reported to London that the deal "was far too good to be true, to be honest". But it proceeded as had been agreed in Moscow and on 15 May 1955 Antoine Pinay, Harold Macmillan, Molotov, John Foster Dulles, and Figl signed the Austrian State Treaty in Vienna. It came into force on 27 July and on 25 October the country was free of occupying troops. The next day, Austria's parliament enacted a Declaration of Neutrality, whereby Austria would never join a military alliance such as NATO or the Warsaw Pact, or allow foreign troops be based within Austria.

Russia and the U.S. have honored the Austrian neutrality deal ever since.

Since the Munich Security Conference of February 2022—when the Biden administration deliberately insulted Russia by sending the incoherently babbling Kamala Harris as the U.S. representative to the crisis talks—I have been of the firm conviction that an Austrian style neutrality deal should have been proposed for Ukraine. Such a deal could have prevented the deaths of hundreds of thousands of young men.

Three bloody years later, a Ukrainian neutrality deal would require the following:

1). The U.S. to cease its policy—officially commencing in 2015—of sending “defense articles” to Ukraine.

2). U.S. officials to cease talking about some day admitting Ukraine to NATO.

3). The CIA to cease its machinations and puppeteering in Ukraine.

4). Russia to declare its recognition of Ukrainian neutrality and to honor the agreement as it did in the case of Austria.

I suspect the sticking point will be Russia’s already announced condition for peace be that of retaining the ethnically Russian territories of Donetsk, Kherson, Luhansk and Zaporizhzhia oblasts.

Here its worth noting that, back in 1997, George Kennan and other American Cold Warriors warned about the folly of countenancing NATO membership for Ukraine, given its long border with Russia, its proximity to Moscow, and the historic, cultural, and ethnic complexity of this border region between Russia and Western Europe.

Since 2022, many Americans and Western Europeans have developed a curious emotional attachment to the notion that every inch of Ukrainian territory—including the Donetsk, Kherson, Luhansk and Zaporizhzhia oblasts—is so sacred and immutable that it’s worth risking World War III and a possible nuclear war to maintain its integrity.

The origin of this emotional attachment is mysterious, given that few if any Americans had even heard of these contested oblasts prior to 2022. I doubt that keeping these territories under the rule of Ukraine lies in the interest of a single American citizen. I wonder if there is a single American citizen who is willing to give up his life for these territories to remain under the rule of the Kiev instead of Moscow.

I just finished listening to a silly debate between Tucker Carlson and Piers Morgan in which the latter struggled to understand the obvious reality it will be a cold day in hell before the Russians give up Crimea, which was annexed by the Russian Empress Catherine the Great in 1783 from the Ottoman vassal state of Crimea.

The Russians wanted a Black Sea naval base, but Catharine also wanted to put an end to the Crimean slave trade. For centuries, the Crimean Khanate had abducted Eastern Europeans through the Crimean–Nogai slave raids in Eastern Europe. The abducted slaves were transported to the rest of the Muslim world in collaboration with the Ottoman slave trade from the Crimea.

Since 1783, Crimea has been the location of Russia’s Sevastopol Naval Base on the Black Sea. The Russians would no sooner give up this strategic possession than the United States would give up its strategic possession of Oahu, Hawaii (with its Pearl Harbor Naval base). The U.S. more or less stole Hawaii from the Hawaiian Monarchy in 1898. Try telling the Pentagon that it should remove its U.S. Naval base from Oahu and give Hawaii back to the ancestors of the Hawaiian monarchy.

I suggest that President Trump call Vladimir Putin and propose immediate talks to iron out a peace deal for Ukraine, modeled after the Austrian Neutrality deal of 1955.