What Caused Super Yacht to Sink Off Sicily?

"Very difficult to understand what could have overwhelmed a vessel of that size."

A tornadic waterspout, or “tornado over water” is being widely reported as the culprit that sank the Bayesian, a 184 ft sailing super yacht, on the morning of August 19 while it was anchored off Porticello near the town of Santa Flavia.

Most news reporting is also taking the opportunity to claim that tornadic waterspouts are an increasingly common event in the Mediterranean due to global warming. A Google search for the literature on tornados in Italy—Biblioteca italiana sulle Trombe d'aria—reveals regular reporting on such meteorological events going back to the 17th century.

A recent paper titled An overview of tornado and waterspout events in Catalonia (2000–2019) points out the following:

Due to their small spatiotemporal scale, tornado detection is strongly linked to visual observations. Therefore, social networks have become one of the most important sources of severe weather reports during the present century, including tornadoes, improving their detection and increasing the number of observed cases compared to previous decades.

The Bayesian was built by Perini Navi at Viareggio, Italy, and delivered in 2008. The ship was last refitted in 2020 and was in the beneficial ownership of Angela Bacares, wife of the technology entrepreneur Mike Lynch, when it sank on August 19, 2024. The ship ranked as one of the most technically advanced sailing vessels ever built, designed to sail in open oceans in the heaviest of weather.

Even if the Bayesian was indeed struck by a full tornadic waterspout, it is still an astonishing fact that the vessel sank. As reported in BOAT International:

The captain of the sister ship to the sunken 56-metre Perini Navi sailing yacht Bayesian has said it is "very difficult to understand what could have overwhelmed a vessel of that size" and called the 56-metre Perini Navi series "bulletproof.”

What is especially puzzling is that the Bayesian was apparently struck by the storm while she was anchored with her sails down. While much of the news reporting is emphasizing the vessel’s extremely tall mast, the same reporting neglects to mention that the yacht’s ballast-weighted keel is designed to withstand the enormous heeling pressure exerted by the sails in a fresh breeze.

I have been on sailing yachts struck by a sudden gale before we had the chance to lower the sails. Though the experience of being “knocked down” is terrifying, the ballast-weighted keel will right the boat, even if it takes on a fair amount of water.

If the Bayesian was indeed struck while anchored, it’s hard to imagine what forces could have caused sufficient, sustained heeling to have flooded and sank such a huge yacht. Were the portholes in the sleeping quarters left open? This strikes me as unlikely, given that super yachts of its class are equipped with powerful AC units that make sleeping below deck in summer vastly more comfortable.

Portholes visible in one of Bayesian’s bedrooms

Likewise, it seems highly likely the main salon windows were also closed with the AC running.

Here the vessel is seen close hauled in a fairly fresh breeze.

We look forward to learning what is discovered in the investigation of what exactly caused this extraordinary disaster that has apparently claimed the lives of the following people:

• British tech entrepreneur Mike Lynch, once dubbed 'Britain's Bill Gates'

• Lynch's 18-year-old daughter, Hannah

• Morgan Stanley's chairman, Jonathan Bloomer

• Judy Bloomer, wife of Morgan Stanley chairman

• Chris Morvillo, a lawyer working for London-based law firm Clifford Chance

• Neda Morvillo, an American jewellery designer and Chris' wife